In the past couple months there has been some considerable discussion about the impact of Libertarian candidate Sean Haugh on North Carolina’s U.S. Senate race. In my interviews with him, the focus of his campaign centers on stopping all wars. He’s raised some attention for his unique campaign videos as well. However, recent polling has even caught the eyes of journalists in Washington, D.C. Between Civitas and Public Policy Polling, Haugh has received 11%, 8%, 11%, 9%, 8%, and 7% respectively in those polls since mid May. The surprising and consistent polling led to a Washington Post article and several other national television interviews. But can he really make a difference in November? Some analysts argue it could hurt House Speaker and Republican Thom Tillis. Haugh has argued to me that he believes support comes from Democrats as well.
So can Haugh really play spoiler? I decided to look up some NC Board of Elections stats to see how tough of a task he faces at the polls. First, let’s take a look at registered voters who identify themselves as Libertarians.
As you can see the number of registered Libertarians has nearly tripled since 2010, however the 2014 total is still just .04% of registered voters in North Carolina. That does not mean Sean Haugh will only get .04% of the vote because the chart below shows prior Libertarian candidates getting much more than that in previous elections. Clearly, unaffiliated voters and disgruntled Republicans and Democrats have cast a ballot for Libertarian candidates in the past. However, prior election results do show the tough task Sean Haugh has in the U.S. Senate race.
As the graph shows, vote totals ranged from roughly 33,807 in 2002 to 133,430 in 2008. Keep in mind, the 2004 and 2008 elections were also presidential election years. Here’s where the numbers show Haugh’s current poll numbers may wane. The percentage of the total vote was just 1.5% for Sean Haugh in 2002, 1.4% for Tom Bailey in 2004, 3.1% for Christopher Cole in 2008 and 2.1% for Michael Beitler in 2010.
What does this all mean? At most, a Libertarian candidate has received 3.1% of the vote in U.S. Senate races since 2002. This is not meant to undermine the potential impact of Sean Haugh. In a race that is considered a toss up, a percentage point here or there could tip the scales in Thom Tillis or Kay Hagan’s favor. However, it seems the 7%, 8% or even 11% in polls appears to be disgruntled voters and history shows they will likely move to one major party candidate or the other after Labor Day. It does, however, show both major party candidates likely have some making up to do with their base before election day.
